If you’ve never heard of Ron Paul you’ve been living under a rock. At the bottom of the ocean. In a cave. On a distant planet. For a very, very long time. Ron Paul is the new darling of the American grass roots political movement. He’s the Howard Dean of the 2008 US Presidential campaign. Fortunately to this point at least he hasn’t managed to hang himself out to dry due to his over-exuberance at a campaign rally. Unfortunately the very things that make him so attractive to so many people will likely cause him not only to lose, but cause his party to lose the presidency in the end.

Why do people like Ron Paul?

He’s is very much a supporter and advocate of the Constitution. He has been for a long time. I first heard of the guy when I used to participate on a discussion forum at Vote.com under the username pureevil. I was very much a supporter of him in those days, and to some extent I still am, but certainly not to the degree I once was. Another reason people like Ron Paul is that he is really an underdog. He’s been in politics for years, since the 1970’s. He certainly knows his way around Washington, and clearly has political longevity. Anyone who takes a moment to review his voting record can’t help but be impressed. Even if you don’t agree with every single thing he has done you can see he clearly stands on his convictions. For instance Ron Paul has never once voted to raise taxes. Not once. That’s pretty impressive in and of itself, but when you couple that with other details he looks better and better. He never voted for a congressional pay raise. Never voted for to take a government paid junket (a trip taken by a member of the government at public expense), voted against the patriot act, voted against the Iraq war. The list goes on and on, but at this point it is clear (at least I hope it is clear) why people really, really, really like Ron Paul.

Why Ron Paul can not win

Ron Paul can not win the Presidency because he is a strict Constructionist. Essentially that means he believes if it is not directly addressed within the Constitution then it is outside of the governments jurisdiction. More alarming than that however is that a Constructionist believes that anything in the Constitution can only be taken at face value and there is no room for interpretation. So when it says A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed. in the 2nd amendment it means just what it says. Period. Which to a gun advocate such as myself seems great, but then when you realize that it’s lacking certain protections. For example you don’t want the neighborhood gangs running around with guns, but the 2nd Amendment clearly states that everyone can have guns. A true Constructionist doesn’t make exceptions like the rest of society does for those elements.

Why Ron Paul is like Ross Perot

Politically Perot and Paul are almost nothing alike. Except for the effect they produce. I remember back when Perot was running in the Presidential election. Most people, and I tend to agree with them, put blame squarely on Perot’s shoulders for Bill Clinton having defeated Bush I. The Democratic left wasn’t going to be swayed from voting for Clinton, but a significant portion of the right was swayed from voting for Bush in order to vote for someone who just happened to be more in line with their own beliefs. Ultimately it was Perot’s decision to run as an independent that cause Bush I to lose the election. That’s the same thing that will happen with Ron Paul. He will be a spoiler for the Republican party and we can pretty much be assured that if he runs as an independent against both Republican and Democrat only the Republican candidate will truly suffer. It will be a repeat of the Bush, Clinton, Perot campaign. The democrats will vote for their candidate and no one else but that person. In the meanwhile the republicans will fracture in two camps. One for Ron Paul and one against and the party candidate will be the one to suffer.

Ron Paul is a great guy and I agree with much of what he says, but in order to best serve the interests of the Constitution it is important that he not run against the main republican candidate as an independent. He will siphon to many votes and cause to much grief.